a deferral The money is not the operator's to give. A rolled-over tier is a liability built from earlier fund shares. Presenting it as generosity obscures the fact that the same percentage was simply not paid in the draws it came from.
Draw Desk / The rollover
Draw 06
The only mechanism that makes a prize bigger than the sales
A rollover is the one part of a draw that can produce a tier bigger than anything this week’s tickets could fund, because it is money carried from draws whose top tier was not won. This page is about the rule, what it does to one draw’s effective return, and the ceiling that eventually forces the tier to be shared.
Draw ticket
- Sheet
- DD-57-07
- Subject
- The rollover
- Carries
- an unwon top-tier share
- Capped by
- a stated ceiling and a must-be-won draw
3 tiersA printed sum: the rules state the amount, and it pays whoever matched, however many that is
1 tierA split fund: a declared share of the prize fund, divided among the lines that matched it
1 tierCarried forward: an unwon share of the fund moved into a later draw instead of paid
Direct answerWhen a draw’s top tier is not won, its share of the prize fund is not paid and is carried into a later draw. That carried money makes the top tier larger than one draw's sales could fund, raises the effective return of the draw it lands in, and climbs until a stated cap, at which point the rules force the tier to be shared by the draw's winners however many there are.
A deferred share, not a giftRaises one draw’s returnCapped by ruleForced to be shared at the cap
The rule in one sentence
A rollover is a rule about what happens to a tier whose money is not paid. The tier's share is deferred rather than redistributed to the other tiers or kept, and it is added to the same tier in the next draw, or the next draw in which that tier is available. The mechanism exists because a top tier is rarely won: at the sample draw's size, the expected number of top-tier winners is a small fraction of one, so most draws carry.
What a rollover does to the arithmetic
A rollover raises the effective return of the draw it lands in, and it does so without changing anything about the split or the odds. The money being played for was staked in earlier draws and not paid; it is a deferred liability of the product rather than a bonus from the operator. To a player buying a ticket in the rolled-over draw, the effect is real and temporary.
Worked example - a rollover landing on one draw (illustrative)
Top-tier share generated per draw at the sample size: 984,430.00
Expected top-tier winners per draw: 0.044, so most draws carry
A run of three draws whose top tier was not won carries:
984,430.00 x 3 = 2,953,290.00
Into the next draw, whose own top-tier share is another 984,430.00:
top tier on offer = 2,953,290.00 + 984,430.00 = 3,937,720.00
Effective return of a 2.00 ticket in that one draw:
the draw's own fund per ticket stays 1.00 - the split is unchanged
the carried money adds 2,953,290.00 / 2,000,000 tickets = 1.4766 per ticket
effective return = (1.00 + 1.4766) / 2.00 = 123.8%
This is the only configuration in which a ticket's expected return can exceed its price,
and it is not a better product: it is a claim on money already staked and not yet paid.
Buy the same ticket in the draw after the rollover is won and the return is 50% again.
The cap, and the draw that must be won
A top tier that rolls over indefinitely would grow without limit and hold money out of circulation for years, so most rules attach a ceiling and an end. The two devices are related and distinct.
- The cap. A stated maximum for the carried tier. Once the tier reaches it, the rules stop adding to it, or they divert the excess to a lower tier or a separate prize.
- The must-be-won draw. A rule that if the tier is not won in a named draw - often the fifth consecutive roll - the prize is shared among the draw's winners at the highest winning tier, however many there are. This is the difference between a large prize and an absent one, and it is why a capped jackpot can be taken by a crowd at once.
- A share of the top tier for a capped draw, not the whole. Some rules divide a forced prize among the highest tier only; others spread a portion down to the tier below to guarantee a wider payment. The rule is published and it decides whether a forced draw pays a few lines a great deal or many lines a little.
What a rollover is often mistaken for
not a gift
not better odds
same chance Nothing about a rollover changes the chance of matching a tier. The count of combinations is identical whether the top tier holds 984,430.00 or 3,937,720.00. Only the amount attached to the tier has moved.
not a reason to buy more
the same decision A larger prize does not change what a ticket costs or what a player can afford. The rolled-over draw is the one occasion on which the crowd is largest, which also makes a split tier - and a forced share at the cap - thinner per winner. The numbers page is about that crowd effect.